Damn, how did this come to a discussion about HD?
Anyway, talking about HD, my opinion, from the start, is that people talking about HD penetration in whatever years are deluded. My only explanation is they are graphic whores.
I'm in the home theater world since a long time, and if there's one thing I learned, it's that people (mainstream) don't buy new techno because the image is better. People that believe that are delusional, really.
People didn't buy DVD because the picture was better, but because it was more convenient. They discovered the better picture later.
People don't buy HDTV because the picture is better (in most situations it's worse), but because most are flat. BTW, even RPTV try to flatten as much as possible, emphasizing geometry problems that destroys the picture, but despite the lesser quality, they will sell better.
Finally, people have no reason to buy HDDVD or BluRay. NONE!
When I say people, I'm talking about all the mainstream people you need, to be a success in the video market. As long as people don't see a clear immediate difference without having to make a comparison with what they had before, there's no way picture quality will be an incentive.
That's why all HDTV sets are by default at some maximum white level that destroy your eyes. It's nowhere near a good setting, it's one of the worse actually, but it will catch your eye in the store.