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What the hell have these forums been discussing for the last few months? Obviously the discussion has revolved often enough around this topic. So obviously it is not too early to analyze the situation. For the good of the industry it should be discussed at length. Can the industry afford a wait and see attitude? I would say no not with development cycles, and contrary momentum.

I do not think it is too early to judge. You have to start judging at some point in time, and with the anniversary fast approaching now is as good a time as any. Right now is when the discussion is most relevant. The reason any poster might think it is too early is they might still be banking on success, but really given what has happened how likely is that at this point?