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misterd on 09 September 2007
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Legend11 said:
naznatips said:
I'm comparing between like titles in the same generation to show future performance in the next generation Legend. You are trying to compare the sales of two titles across a generation as signs of the sales for ANOTHER generation above that. That's a pretty large stretch of logic. That's like me saying FFVII sold 9.72 million so FFXIII will sell that much... even though that would be completely ignoring the much more recent and relevant data one generation in between. You are going back too far to be statistically accurate in a direct software comparison is my point.

I was trying to compare the first game in one series to the first in another instead of comparing the second game in the Super Smash Brothers series to the first in the Halo series.  Basically I was showing that each game in one series was outselling the corresponding game in the other.  Ignore it though since it's obviously not logical.


The problem is it is hard to compare 1:1 for those reasons.

v1 SSB came out at the end of the N64's life, and most titles didn't sell as well as they could. Halo1 came out w/ the XBox, and for a while was the only reason to have a 'Box. That would boost it's sales. 

Halo1 vs SSBM, both out at the same time with a similar user base, but one was a new IP, the other established.

Halo 2 vs SSBM - both sequels, but at different times, different user bases and one was online the other not.

Of the 3 possibilities, I think SSBM/Halo1 are the best comparison, as the "new IP" thing didn't seem to hurt Halo 1 any more than it hurt SSB.

This time, though, you'll have the third installment of both series, with relatively close user bases (for now), and both having online play. Because of the hype and relative lack of competition (Bioshock and Mass Effect look awesome, but as far as sales go neither will likely compare to Metroid or Mario), I expect Halo 3 to win short term in the states, and maybe Europe. Long term, though, Wii looks very likely to far outpace the 360 in terms of console sales, and that will give a very strong edge to Brawl which I doubt Halo 3 can over come (especially when you add in the fact that the discrepency of sales favoring Brawl in Japan will more than cover the differences in H3 and Brawl sales in the US).