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I think ignoring the Wii is a massive mistake because it will lead you to conclusions which are incorrect ...

If you look at the library of upcoming games for the PS3 and XBox 360 you could say that both console manufacturers are "Preaching to the Converted" and only (really) appealing to their base. With that in mind, I highly doubt the next "Guitar Hero" is going to be born on either system, and neither system will have the appeal to branch out to mainstream gamers regardless of where they price the system.