I would never count a games hardware manufacturer out or past the point of no return! Just look at all the people who said GameCube was the point of no return for Nintendo. Nintendo actually maintained profits and remained the most profitable hardware first party in the industry.
As for the immediate future (4th Generation) I'd say Sony's passing that point right now. The PlayStation Portable is being outsold 3 to 1 thats no just getting beat thats getting owned. Sony's PlayStation3 is failing to over take Nintendo's Wii in all parts of the globe including Europe where Sony expected take the market by storm.
A price cut in the immediate future could turn things around a bit but price cuts are a slippery slope once you've cut your expected to keep cutting. Look at PSP V.S DS, PS recieved price cut early on and look today its selling like 129.99-199.99CDN but initially it was priced at 299CDN compared to DS who started off at 189.99CDN and two years later is priced at 169.99! So Sony cut over 100$ of possible profits off of their hardware while Nintendo managed to only cut 20$.
Sony started this generation with an over powered piece of hardware. The PS3 was built far too powerfull. Estimates put Sony at a 300USD loss for every unit at their huge price point. But now they plan to cut the price another 100$ that would mean a 400$ loss on every unit sold. While estimates place Nintendo's Wii at a 170$ manufacturing price which means roughly 100USD profit on every unit sold a major bonus when both your competitors are loosing money on their hardware.
In Japan Sony isn't loosing entirely just the way GameCube was loosing to PS2, its not going to die its just going to take some heavy blows in Japanese consumer support. The real point of no return is if Sony throws in the towel (Nintendo was in the same position and chose to stick it out) but will Sony?
-JC7
"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer