| mrstickball said: Koffie - To be fair though, comparing opening weeks, Madden 2008 and 2007 launched with 750,000 and 850,000 units respectively. Isn't Halo3 quite a bit bigger than those 2? Most every sales report I've seen for Madden sales vs. Halo3 preorders has put Halo 3 at a 3:1 upto a 5:1 advantage against M08 sales. Halo2 sold to 20% of the userbase the first day on the Xbox (11.5m owners). The X360, atleast according to VGC will have over 7m users at that time. I would greatly assume that Halo3 will sell to a bigger % than that, at that time. Not only that, but if you look at Gears of War last year, it sold 606,000 copies, which was 17.9% of the entire X360 userbase at that time. If the X360 was at 7,250,000 units by then, even if it did GOW numbers, it'd be at 1,297,000 units. However, I tend to think Halo 3 *might* (emphasis on sarcasm) be more hyped than Gears was. Next game you could compare, in terms of percentage, would be Madden 2007. It sold to 23.9% of the userbase (625k to 2,613k users). Using those numbers, H3 would sell to 1,732,000 people. IMO, it should sell between M07's 23.9% of the install base, upto 35 or even 40%. It really depends on the whole "everyone that wants Halo3 already has a X360". If that were true, Halo3 could sell 6.5m copies first week :-p |
Yes Halo 3 is bigger than Madden, that is why I predict sales of twice as high. Also it is bigger than Gears of War, but the installed base is quite a bit larger as well. And the larger the userbase the less likely it is to reach 20-30% attachment rate within the first week. So if it gets the same attachment rate as Gears of War after 1 week I think Halo 3 did outperform Gears of War. (Look at Madden 08 having considerably lower attachment rates compared to 07 because of the installed base.)
Btw, my prediction would mean a 22-24% attachment rate, that is still very good.
"It really depends on the whole "everyone that wants Halo3 already has a X360". If that were true, Halo3 could sell 6.5m copies first week :-p"
That statement is completely false. The only conclusion possible from "everybody that wants Halo3 already has a 360" is that Halo 3 will never sell more than the current installed base.
