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mrstickball on 04 February 2009
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Seihyouken said:

For the record, it was't true with Halo 3 because Halo=/=Gears of War. There was never any grounds with which to say that it would. Furthermore, it WAS true with Gears of War 2. The week Gears 2 released, 360 sales increased about 50,000 units. That's almost nothing considering how many copies the game sold and a large portion of those sales could easily be attributed to the holiday season. It moved systems, but not a significant amount for scale of the game or the time of year it was released.

I'm not saying that market saturation won't affect Mass Effect 2, Uncharted 2 or Ratchet & Clank 2, but it won't affect them anywhere near as much at it did with Gears of War 2 or will with Halo 3: ODST or Forza 3.

Using completely different franchises to argue market saturation is flawed logic. It was flawed in 2007, it's flawed now. However, when two games are part of the exact same series and go after the exact same market on the exact same system, you WILL see the affects of market saturation. The only question is how much, which is almost completely dependent on how big the previous game was, and how different the next game will be from it. We saw it with Gears 2, we will see it with Mass Effect 2, Uncharted 2, Forza Motorsport 3 and Ratchet & Clank Future 2. The only games we definitely won't see it with are games like Gran Turismo 5, Final Fantasy XIII, and God of War III, which are the main reasons why Sony's lineup over the next year potentially looks so much better than Microsoft's.

Here's the issue with your argument:

You are arguing that since Halo 3 and Gears of War are large franchises, then it means they are more saturated than a sequel for say, Mass Effect 2 or Uncharted 2. The problem is the opposite is true.

Although there's an inverse relationship to the size of an IP, and the effect that it'll have in hardware saturation on the sequel, you have to still take into account that the sequel will most likely sell very well, too.

This is why the ODST, GoW2, Uncharted, and R&C argument must be looked at:

Uncharted 2 and R&C 2 are both very puny franchises in terms of hardware moving abilities. Neither predicessor sold blockbuster amounts of software. Since this is the case, why do you think that they'll move more hardware than Gears of War 2 did, which sold more in it's first 7 days on market than either did their entire lives?

So we must strike out lower-selling games as being hardware movers by any significant degree. Why? Look at Resistance 2. It was Sony's most popular IP on the Playstation 3 that has had a sequel - even bigger than Uncharted 2 or Ratchet & Clank, yet provided minimal boosts to Playstation 3 hardware on it's release week.

If you want to continue on with that line of thinking that 'smaller sequels on the same system, like Uncharted 2, ME2, R&C 2 are going to move more hardware than Gears of War 2, or ODST', then lets continue that line of logic: The X360 will utterly crush the Playstation 3 this Christmas, by your own admission, since it has a very large stable of mid-level exclusive sequels that will release later this year (Lips 2, N3-2, Scene It 3, Naturo 3, DDRU4) since Sony seems to have less of those available.

Of course, if you reject this point of view, then your argument only turns (again) to cherrypicking a very specific subset of exclusives that can move hardware, only to fit your pro-Sony viewpoint, rather than a logical viewpoint that encompasses all systems which are effected by the market in the same way.

As for FFXIII, GT5, and God of War 2 making Sony's lineup look so much better over the next year, lets look at the following points:

1) We still don't know when any of the said 3 are launching

2) It's been rumored that FFXIII and GT5 will only launch in 1 region first, with worldwide releases afterwards.

If this is the case, then the effect of 2 of your 3 exclusives becomes weak. I agree that XIII and GT5 are big system-movers. However, since we don't know when any of the 3 are going to be released, it's hard to say that the PS3 does have a better lineup. Only the potential to be better. Of course, the X360 does too, given how many sequels haven't been announced that could come out within the next 12 months. '

Munkeh - I am not arguing that the hardware moving capabilities of a large sequel on the same system are eqivilent to that of a large sequel not on the same system. Any 'big' game that doesn't have a sequel on said system should move a large number of units - we've seen that with titles such as MGS4, GTAIV, and Halo 3.

If we were going to list what moves hardware, I'd put the list as follows:

  1. Evergreen Killer Apps (Wii Sports, Halo #1, Nintendogs) roughly anything that sells over 5m units for a new IP
  2. Major Sequels on a New System (Halo 3, MGS4, GTAIV, Final Fantasy XIII, Dragon Quest IX, X) - lesser if sequel is multi-plat, such as GTAIV
  3. Mid-level (2m-5m) exclusives
  4. Major Sequels on a Current System (Gears of War 2, H3: ODST)
  5. Minor Sequels on a New System (600k-2m)
  6. Mid-level Sequels on a Current System (Uncharted 2, Ratchet & Clank 2, Mass Effect 2)

And so on with the lower-level multiplats.

Now, when analyzing the PS3/X360 wars, we have to note the following:

  • The Playstation 3's price is still prohibitive. The X360's is not.
  • The X360 still has the larger library of games for consumers to buy (momentum, if you will)

So then we look at the 360 having a built-in advantage if we're talking abosolute factors when talking about hardware sales. Even if XIII, GT5 and GoW3 prove to be system-sellers, their effects may be reduced since adopters cannot afford the hardware at a mainstream price. This may change if Sony reduces the price, but it's still a potential, and not a confirmed thing we can say 'Ok. The PS3 will be $300 when GT5 launches'.

In the end, everything that's being argued by Shoruken is merely speculation. And I could do a lot of that too - arguing that games such as Alan Wake, Kingdom Under Fire 2, and other new IPs, plus a much bigger abundance of mid-level sequels could easily disrupt the Playstation 3's percieved advantage with XIII in Japan, and unknown release dates for GT5 and GoW3.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.