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If:
-Sony cuts the price $100 and severely hampers profits again
-MS doesn't counter with an equally brutal move (as MS has said it would act if Sony dropped price)
----Brutal move could be to discontinue the arcade and drop Pro/Elite to $199/299 or keep the arcade at $149, do Pro at $199, and Elite at $249.
-All 2009 lineup for Sony is actually released in 2009
-MS explodes and 360 vanishes from the face of the earth

Then yes, Sony could stand a chance of beating Microsoft in console sales for 2009.