Every game will take a back seat to Halo3, but in the end, it's not a bad thing.
Gears of War was a very similar setup. It was obviously the most hyped game, and curbstomped COD3 and RSV.
However, that didn't prevent COD3 and RSV from easily managing 1m+ over time. The fact is, regardless of what the hardware does, software will do better when you have an extra 200,000+ units in the US user chain. It's not like the 200k people (I estimate) that get a X360 + Halo aren't going to shrug buying other big titles, and smaller titles as well.
About my 1.5m estimate for Bioshock. I have Bioshock at 1.5 for a few reasons:
#1. With such an ungodly high reviewer and user rating, legs will wind up being better than normal in the end.
#2. Bioshock IS X360s 2nd biggest shooter right now (next to Halo3). So when the Halo boys get on board, I think sales for shooters will be split between H3, Bioshock, and COD4. Bioshock will remain in the top 200 for the rest of the year. If it does this, it'll pass 1.5m at some point. It's already at 550k, so it's 35% there.
Looking at other major X360 releases, on a per-week basis, no game has under a 2.3 multiplier for ANY weekly release on the X360. So a 2.3 multiplier for Bioshock (at worst) would put it at 938,400 units in the US alone. However, with the units being moved for Halo 3, and Christmas upcoming, I think it'll wind up with a 3.5. Remember, Gears of War has managed a near 6.0 multiplier despite it's massive debut....So 1.5m isn't too far off.
Also, I'd agree that TW08 had a similar install on next gen (and PS2 wasn't too great). Nevertheless, other EA Sports titles such as Madden, NCAA, and Fight Night have done vastly better on the X360. With that being the case, EA will still cosy up, because their blockbuster titles are still doing the best on X360. A platinum Fight Night 3 (which is still charting around 7k units a week, and well over 1m), a 1.6m Madden 07, and a 1.1m Madden 08 puts the X360 in the drivers seat for sports games.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
