Eh...
1m is definately possible. It all just depends on how the legs are for Blue Dragon.
Some were in the "It'll be a very frontloaded JRPG" bandwagon like ckmlb, predicting somewhere around the 200k range for first week...But don't quote me on this.
I was in the "Blue Dragon won't chart phenominal numbers first week, but have great legs" which I still seeing it doing. Thus far, it's had GREAT word-of-mouth from the JRPG X360 community. The Blue Dragon forums, although small, have been overwhelmingly positive about the game.
Either way, Blue Dragon has already trumped Phantasy Star Universe, and nearly beaten Enchanted Arms numbers on the X360 in one week.
I put the legs of Blue Dragon somewhere in the 3.0 to 5.0 area for legs. Enchanted Arms was somewhere near the 3.2 area. However, EM was panned pretty bad, and used copies were overly abundant (and with BD having harder achievements, being longer, and having more content, I see there being less used copies available).
So... I think Blue Dragon could wind up anywhere from 326,133 units at worst (assuming pretty bad, 50% drops) to 543,555 units, give or take.
Blue Dragon has a few advantages:
Kiddie Appeal in graphics (despite what anyone says, kiddie games such as Viva Pinata, Lego Star Wars and POTC3 have all had phenominal legs)
Eternal Sonata (people will pick up a X360 for ES and probably pick up BD as well, just like they did in Japan.)
Halo 3 (major increase in hardware will lead to either smaller drops, or increase in sales. Yes, the games have nothing in common, but if H3 sells 150,000 extra X360s for the week, that'll move a few copies of BD)
Closeness to Christmas (sales are beginning to increase for the X360 pretty steadily, leading me to believe that BD should see some strong drops later on in it's life, as Christmas is only 3 months away).
So I see 500k in the US as easily possible. Is less possible? Yes. However, I do think 500k is definately attainable, or more. I initially had BD pegged at 550k-575k, and will keep it there.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
