The end result, 10 years from now:
Sony takes 2nd place this gen easily, PS3 sells well, but HD-DVD succeeds.
Sony, +500B yen over the generation easily.
as opposed to the current situation:
Sony takes 3rd place initially, PS3 has a dangerously slow start, Blu-Ray wins format war.
Sony, +1000B Yen by the end of generation, easily, even after R&D is accounted for.
Don't underestimate the royalty income from Blu-Ray players and discs. CDs made Philips and Sony, back in the day. Some 250 million DVD drives were shipped last year, in PCs alone. The DVD royalty is $18 a player (or was it $12? I forget). The Blu-Ray royalty is $30 per player, and it will become the standard, whether you like it or not.
Now imagine how many discs are printed each year for the dominant format...
