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I think it will be around for 10 years from JP launch.

However in much the same way as the PS1/2 were ramped down as the prem console offering I expect the PS3 to take a back seat to its eventual successor.

The question is when will that be.

The original playstation was the top offering for (12/94 - 03/00) 5 yrs 3 months
The PS2 was top for (03/00 - 11/06) 6 years 8 months

The PS3 can reasonably be expected to be top Sony console until at least Nov 2011.

Sony initially intimated that this console would be given longer, but after the chronic start its had and the current market forces at play, I think it more likely it will be pensioned off early.

Unless of course things change. Time is one thing Sony still has on its side.