sc94597 said:
mibuokami said:
sc94597 said:
outlawauron said:
shams said:
Louie said:
shams said:
Here we go again :P
50% of total shipment on day#1 is NOT bad. Blame the retailers more units were not ordered. If they get close to 100% shipment sellouts, the games are definite successes.
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*cries* oh no, not you as well shams! A sellout of the first shipment doesn't mean the game was a success. If Namco projected 500k units the game won't be a success even if a second shipment of 100k unit sells out as well.
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The publishers are the ones talking to the retailers. They know how many units retailers will order. If they order 100k, they will NOT have "expectations" for 500k lifetime sales.
If they do, its up to the publisher to convince the retailer to take more units - cheaper per-unit price, or some other deal.
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Obviously, sell-through rate does not determine success/failure on its own (ship 1 unit, sell 1 unit...). But you can't expect the title to sell more units than its shipment figure in the first week (unless a second shipment comes in).
From the look of it, the retailer order figures were pretty close to right (based on sales).
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Just because its an RPG, doesn't mean its going to "sell well" in Japan. Its a new IP, and the Wii has had less RPG love than the other consoles. The RPG market is becoming rather segmented - and you need a big name to sell heaps of units.
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So you are saying that developers know their game will flop and lose money before they release it?
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What are they suppose to do not release it and lose more money?
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You're missing the point! Sellthrough of initial shipping cannot be a measure of a game's success or an estimation of publisher's expectation.
A publisher must have a clear idea of (minimum) expectation of sales when they first greenlight any project presented to them by a developer because a budget must be allocated!
That initial expectation could be drastically dfferent from retailer's demand.
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If a game sells close to all of its shipment don't you think it was the retailers underestimating rather than the publishers overestimating? I think its obvious that Fragile will sell close to all of its shipment for the whole week If Namco expected it to sell more then they should have tried to persuade the retailers to order more. It can't sell more than what is there. Also I'm sure the developers/publishers expectations of how much of a game will sell changes dozens of times. It may have started out as looking profitable and then expectations lowered and the main goal was to have as much money returned as possible.
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The ultimate goal of all games as far as a publisher concern is obviously to turn a profit, all expenditures are merely investments that can either net a solid return or turn sour as with any endeavour with elements of chance.
How can any publisher consider that a game has met with their expectation when it does not turn a profit? Again we are talking about initial expectation here versus comments that the sellthrough we are seeing here means the game did well.
It did not do well, it did no meet the publisher's expectation, the only thing you can say is that the publisher were resigned to the lost when it became obvious that retailers were ordering a pitiful initial shipment.
There is nothing a publisher can do at that point, but I doubt any publisher will be claiming that a 45% first day sellthrough of such a small shipment is 'as they expected' and 'satisfactory' when you consider the budget of this game.
