Season Predictions: This is in terms of whether I expect a team's play to improve, decline, or remain rouhgly the same. This doesn't necessarily correlate with record.
AFC East:
Buffalo Bills: Improvement. This is a tough call. I expect the offense to improve - Losman took big steps at QB last season, and Marshawn Lynch is a huge upgrade over Willis McGahee, who was packed off to Baltimore. But the Bills also lost a slew of starters, includng their best CB, Nate Clements, but they also picked up the second-best ILB of the draft in Paul Posluszny. Should be in the wild-card hunt.
Miami Dolphins: Now that the Saban/Culpepper Era is over, I expect Improvement from the Dolphins, but given the quality of their division I don't expect them to be able to get a playoff spot. Trent Green has obviously declined as a QB, but he can't be any worse than Culpepper was last season, and I actually consider John Beck, the rookie, to start at some point during the season. I'm not happy with how high they took Ted Ginn Jr., to me merely a less-versatile Antwaan Randle-El, but Welker's production needed to be replaced somewhere - Chris Chambers is terribly overrated and not to be depended upon. They overpaid for Joey Porter, but Jason Taylor's a star, and the defense overall is good, but not great.
New England Patriots: Same. The Pats were the most active team this offseason, so it may seem strange that I don't expect any major improvement. The slew of new receivers, most notably Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, and Wes Welker, probably won't make a huge difference. Tom Brady's passing noticeably declined last season, but not as much as expected given the scrubs he was throwing to. He's going to be good no matter who the receivers are. Adalius Thomas, for similar reasons, isn't going to make a huge impact because his role - a veratile utility-player - isn't unique in New England, which has built a dynasty out of such players. he's just another cog in the machine, But losing superstar DE Richard Seymour (the one for at least six games will hurt. Still, they're the favorites to win this division.
New York Jets: Same/Decline. Inertia is the byword for the Jets this year. They didn't make any noticeable improvements (as a Pitt alumnus, I can tell you that rookie CB Darelle Revis is not the star they think he is, and their atrocious run D is the main problem anyway). Jonathan Vilma is the standout of a below average defense, but if Chad Pennington can stay healthy, the above-average offense will keep them in games. This team played above its level of talent last season, so regression to the mean may catch up to them, especially given that they have a theoretically tougher schedule this year. That and the forecasted improvemnts of two divisional rivals means that they'll have a tough time returning to the playoffs.
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