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One thing I find particularly interesting is that people use their own personal assumptions to conclude that "Casual" gamers are mostly new to gaming and that they will eventually graduate to "Hardcore" games ...

I could be wrong but I suspect that if we had complete data from previous generations, added up multiplatform releases, and then listed games that sold more than 250,000 units we would see that what people define as "Casual" gaming has been huge for quite some time.