The only way that Microsoft will win a generation is if Sony drops out of the game industry and Nintendo falters again. The first is staged to happen, but the second is far less likely because Nintendo has already made their mistakes and are focused more on a new successful path. They are ahead of the curve and it will take time to fizzle back down.
Also, you probably don't fully see what implications this generation is going to have. Sure it is taking time for 3rd parties to come over to Wii, but by the end of this generation, it will be the leading platform with developers. Consumers are going to go nuts for Wii 2 as well most likely, as history has shown as well, and developers take a while to switch consoles as we have seen with the HD consoles, so expect another generation similar to this. The only way this can change is if in the next generation Nintendo starts to fizzle, but with all they know about driving the "what is now the casual" market, it will be easy for them to redominate.
Microsoft could still dominate after next gen, but they would have to seriously do some rethinking and structuring like Nintendo does, and from what we have seen with the windows platform, that is highly unlikely.
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