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Microsoft has already won this generation as far as I am concerned. They changed console gaming and brought in massive pipelines for revenue. It doesn't really matter if your first or second. You have to remember Xbox live is a cash cow that none of the other consoles have. 50 dollars per year from even 1/3 of the user base is 500,000,000 per year. Even if licensing was 10 dollars a disk?, Nintendo would have to sell 50 million extra games per year to make up for it. Not to mention that xbox live also generates more sales in premium DLC.