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TheBigFatJ on 16 January 2009
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DMeisterJ said:
TheBigFatJ said:
DMeisterJ said:

Stop failing. x_x

Was our bet for sigs or avatars?

It was a ban bet, but we never made a new once once the ban bets were banned.

 

It wasn't really fair anyway since the PS3 never had a chance to get anywhere near 25%.  Not this year either.

Hey, I trust npd numbers more than a random guy on internet saying "wii sells everything nintendo ships". Also it is so amusing that some people don't want even to consider that there could be plenty of wiis sitting at the shelves.

Let's assume for a moment that the Wii is actually selling out in America -- that is, fewer than 10% of the retailers who carry it have it at the standard retail price.

Shipped can mean a lot of different things.  Sony used it to describe unit they shipped to warehouses and then they used "sold" to describe units they shipped to retailers.  Nintendo and Microsoft use "shipped" and "sold" interchangably to talk about units they send to retailers.

However, the shipping pipeline from China is probably at least two weeks, probably longer.  Right?  So if Nintendo is shipping 3 million per month during the holiday season, that means that at least 1.5 million could easily be sitting in a shipment pipeline.  However, during the holiday months they could also air freight them making shipped numbers only a few days from sold-to-consumer numbers for a sold-out product.

Frankly, Nintendo announcing shipped numbers provides little more than a ceiling under which sales must be.

NJ5: Even though we don't know how NPD adjusts its numbers, and we know it must, we do know that NPD is a for-pay service that the big companies trust to give numbers.  They never complain about the numbers and they often flaunt them.  They provide very detailed numbers to these companies compared to what you and I see.  If NPD numbers were wildly inaccurate (say, 50%) then they'd have a serious business problem.

My tendancy is to trust NPD over VGC despite the fact that I like VGC and am abivalent to the NPD.  I dont' care that the Wii didn't break all records for December because I know next December will be much bigger.  The Wii is really increasing in popularity here in the US, much faster than the PS2 ever did.  It outsold the DS and the DS is the current record holder.  So as Nintendo increases supply (which they will) the holiday sales will definitely get crazy.