Forbes: Sony is Screwed...Is this article accurate?

[TheBigFatJ]

NJ5 said:

TheBigFatJ said:

Arius Dion said:
I also doubt a spring recovery is even feasible at this point, things are going to get worst before they start getting better. All signs indicate 09 being worst than 08.

 

Exactly -- spring could mark the beginning of an economic recovery, but a Sony recovery would follow much, much later as the beginning of an economic recovery would literally be the worst time for Sony.

I think Arius is saying that the economies will still be worsening in Spring... Unemployment is not that high yet for example. Frankly I would be very positively surprised if the economies bottomed out this year.

 

 

Right.  When the "recession recovery" begins, the economy is literally at its worst point (highest unemployment, lowest output).  So even if recession recovery begins in 2009, 2009 will still almost certainly be a worse year for Sony than 2008.  The world recession beginnning a recovery will not be help to Sony, it will the the promise of help at some point further in the future.  But not in the same year that the recovery begins.

But many economists consider 2009 the year when the recovery will begin -- ie: the year when the world economy hits bottom.  In a very naive view, I would guess that if the world economy bottoms out in mid 2009, then 2010 would be approximately equivalent to 2008, or slightly worse (recovery will probably be slower than the beginning of the recession).