What percentage of PS3 owners are FPS fans?

[Vetteman94]

richardhutnik said:

Vetteman94 said:
I would say i'm a big fan, 13 out of the 40 PS3 games I own are FPS games. And seeing that FPS do pretty decent on the PS3, I would say around 25% of PS3 owners are fans of FPS games. So Killzone 2 should sell between 3-4 million, but thats just my guess.

How many of those will be within the first 24-48 hours and the first month?

Let's take 4 million as the high end over 2 years, and then apply this chart to it (from here):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_adoption_lifecycle

You have 2.5% who are out in front.

Then you have 13.5% who come in early.

Then the bulk of sales at 34%.

Then the late bulk 34%.

Then the last remaining folk at 16%.

For the sake of math, let's bump up lifetime sales of Killzone 2 to 6 million.

If 6 million is the target, should then expect around 180,000 within the first 24-48 hours.

Then, for early adopters, say the first month or so, 800,000 to 900,000 

Then the rest would follow.  The title would push around 2 million sold within the first few months.  

 

People can massage this a bit accounting for there being February launch and so on.  How early the sales depends on whether or not Gamestops do things like midnight madness launches.

Now if we were talking about Blu-Ray adoption, or DD adoption, then your chart would have some value to it.  But everyone knows that video game sale are extremely front loaded, tailing off at the end. 

 

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Metal+Gear+Solid+4%3A+Guns+Of+The+Patriots+-+PS3&reg2=All&game2=&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=100&weekly=1

 http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Halo+3+-+X360&reg2=All&game2=&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=100&weekly=1