| Vetteman94 said: I would say i'm a big fan, 13 out of the 40 PS3 games I own are FPS games. And seeing that FPS do pretty decent on the PS3, I would say around 25% of PS3 owners are fans of FPS games. So Killzone 2 should sell between 3-4 million, but thats just my guess. |
How many of those will be within the first 24-48 hours and the first month?
Let's take 4 million as the high end over 2 years, and then apply this chart to it (from here):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_adoption_lifecycle
You have 2.5% who are out in front.
Then you have 13.5% who come in early.
Then the bulk of sales at 34%.
Then the late bulk 34%.
Then the last remaining folk at 16%.
For the sake of math, let's bump up lifetime sales of Killzone 2 to 6 million.
If 6 million is the target, should then expect around 180,000 within the first 24-48 hours.
Then, for early adopters, say the first month or so, 800,000 to 900,000
Then the rest would follow. The title would push around 2 million sold within the first few months.
People can massage this a bit accounting for there being February launch and so on. How early the sales depends on whether or not Gamestops do things like midnight madness launches.
