I'm just going to assume Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft will be the players next generation. I'll leave the ideas of any company entering or leaving the race up to commenters if they want to consider that.
My concern is whether the 3 consoles will effectively differentiate themselves, and perhaps what they will change. Obviously Nintendo has done this effectively in the current generation. They changed the game and I think it's safe to say they'll be continuing on the path their taking with the Wii. What will they do differently? Will they focus on fighting the "kiddie" stigma attached to them perhaps? Better online?
My main concern is with Sony and Microsoft. Will they continue on with their technological arms race that's been raging all gen? Microsoft is obviously the one that could afford to do this longer. I think Sony will definitely be taking the route of Nintendo, backing out of this race to some degree because of a mix of necessity and and a desire to stand out. I genuinely believe Sony will learn from their mistakes and adapt accordingly. I could easily see them pulling out a "victory" next gen, even though they won't be the favorite like they were before this gen started. They have to focus on their ridiculously good first party games, which in my opinion is the only company that can rival Nintendo's. They will go more "casual", creating a better balance between "hardcore" and "casual" games thus changing the perception of them. And again, price, priiiiiiiice, PRICE. I really think they would be in a much better place right now if they would've been cheaper, regardless of the "price point doesn't matter" argument some level. Before this gen the Playstation was going to win, Nintendo was going to get killed, and Microsoft was going to do better. That price changed everything(along with the Wiimote). Don't get me wrong, the Wii might've still been in the lead, but it would be much closer. So their next gen console will be $400 upon release.
Microsoft, well, I believe they are going to be the most static in terms of approach, if only because they can. They have the weakest first party capabilities by far, perhaps they will try and change this. They will focus on online and do mostly what they're doing now, making sure that they get all the good stuff on their system. They might experiment in being more "casual", but they won't go too far.
So basically, I think the greatest change will come from Sony. I think they will be the "hardcore"/"casual" bridge between Nintendo("casual") and Microsoft("hardcore"). I apologize for the "hardcore" and "casual" labels. I know they're dumb, but I know most of you understand what I'm trying to convey with the labels.
