We don't know how much Sony is losing per unit, especially since the analyses we have don't seem to take the exchange rates into account. There were widely circulated reports one year ago that the PS3 cost $400 to produce, so I don't see a reason to believe the current reports are any more trustworthy.
As for your scenarios...IMO both are only possible if the dollar/euro recover, and even then they are uncertain. Things are not entirely under Sony's control now, fortunately for them they're not the only Japanese company suffering from this so they may get external help too.
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