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Agreed. People are not stupid, and tend to be well-educated about their purchasing decision. They will upgrade to a next-gen system when it has games that interest them, whether or not that system happens to be the Wii2.

The next Nintendo system has the potential to sell better, yes. Of course it does. It just has to come out with a lineup that smashes the "core" lineups for the other two platforms, so it can steal some portion of the current Sony and Microsoft acolytes.