I think it's simpler than that. Developers were blindsided by the Wii. Even after a year people were still saying the PS3 would take off and the Wii would collapse as a fad(or the bubble would burst, if you want to misuse a financial analogy). Some developers came to understand it around that time, but that hasn't left alot of development time for big Wii projects. As such, all we've gotten so far is the big third parties allocating more resources to their annual (tight scheduled) multiplats on Wii than they would have otherwise eg. Shaun White and COD:WaW, and smaller projects. We should expect the bigger projects that would have been commissioned starting a year ago to be coming up soon.
I also don't agree with your use of numbers. Estimation is ok when it's kept simple. But multiplying estimates against estimates reduces your accuracy range dramatically. I think most of your attempts at estimates are harder to determine than you think.
A game I'm developing with some friends:
www.xnagg.com/zombieasteroids/publish.htm
It is largely a technical exercise but feedback is appreciated.
