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nightsurge on 07 January 2009
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Lord N said:
C8 said:
Lord N said:

Even 60-70 million is too high for the 360. This is its 3rd year and it's currently at 27 million. 2008 will most likely be its strongest year, and a successor will be released in 2011 at the latest.

People really need to stop comparing the 360 to the PS2. The PS2 peaked later and had better legs because it appealed to all demographics whereas the 360 appeals mostly to core and hardcore gamers. The PS2 continued to sell because there were simply more people who wanted it. A lot more people. the same can be seen with software sales. Games that appeal to all demographics such Mario Kart, Mario Galaxy, Brawl, etc, continue to have strong sales for years whereas hardcore games like Halo, Gears Of War, GTA, and MGS sell 70-90% of their lifetime sales within the first few months of release.

 

I have no real guess on the final sales numbers for 360, but I certainly believe two things:

- 360 will sell more units in 2009 than it sold in 2008

- The successor for 360 will not be released by the end of 2011

 

 

The 360 has already seen a sizeable increase from 2007/2008, so the only way for it to see another increase of that size would be for public perception of the console to change, and I really dn't see how. Even a price drop wouldn't do it as it's already cheaper than the Wii. It won't be long before the 360 runs out of hardcore gamers who want it.

MS's next console will indeed be released by 2011. If they waint any longer then they cede the advantage of a headstart as both Sony and Nintendo will release by 2012 at the latest, and I don't think that's something they want to do.

 

 

Do you have any arguments to back up your beliefs?  Sony seems to want the PS3 to last for 10 years... I have a feeling their next console won't be seen untill at least year 6-7 of that 10 year plan, which would be 2012/2013.  I have a feeling MS will release the next console in 2012, not 2011.

The 360 just cracked the $200 price, and only with the lower end model.  Once the Pro gets to $200, it will really spur up more sales.  Add to that, this year will see 2 Halo games.  Granted most people like to say it sucks, but they will still be in line launch night for at least one of these games.

MS still has plenty of options.  Realisticly, I expect this year to be the peak year, then see gradually declining YOY sales for 2010-2012.  I still see it reaching at the very least in the mid 50 millions, and more likely will end up with 60-70 million, which would more than double its first consoles sales, and set a new standard for "second place consoles" by selling so much more than the common second place finisher normally does.