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@disolitude: The first thing that's going to require is for Nintendo to bridge the gap between the new gamers and the core gamer demographics. Difficult, but Mario Kart Wii shows that it's very much possible.

The second thing that will need to happen is that they will need to be completely aware of their alternatives. This is actually more likely than the first, because the average consumer will be fairly well-educated given enough time dealing with this sort of thing.

The third thing is that the consumer will need to become dissatisfied with the Wii by itslf, which is where things gets really, really, really iffy.

@Squilliam: Because I like the idea of looking back on predictions made during an unreasonably early time and having a good laugh. It's why I didn't predict in ranges, either.