Soleron on 06 January 2009
Assuming no improvement in shader technology (unlikely), the console hardware that will be availible in 2011 will probably be at 32nm (yes, Intel claims 22nm by then, but consoles are never cutting-edge PC chips). Since the current chips were designed at 90nm, that gives 8x the performance from transistor count alone. So I think console hardware in 2011 could be up to 10x as powerful in terms of raw shader power.
But I think graphics will be much less important, and MS and Sony will choose to have cheaper consoles out of the gate and incorporate their own form of 1:1 motion controls. That will severely reduce the budget for graphics. So I think the next generations' graphics hardware will be about 4x better. I don't think the difference will be very visible.
