In the whole making profits type thingy, I think the one thing your argument forgets is how much money Sony will be spending on developing games. While in the long term these games will see a return Sony are still spending alot of money every week developing the huge amount of games in their 15 studio+ first party. That has to be taken into account too.
I think it sounds reasonable to expect a price cut around August / September time, albeit Sony need to get one of their big hitter software like GT5 of GoW III out to go with it. The figures you've given are their costs in the US, is it possible they could see profits from PS3 sales in the UK, Japan or Europe earlier?
What is certain for me is it's no longer about competiting for Sony, it's about making profit and selling as many consoles along the way. 2009 is a key year, SCE need to start showing green figures while selling more PS3's then last year, potentially at the same price for the most part. It's important PS3 sales don't really start to dry up, like what happend to the GameCube, especially if this happens before the price cut is feasible.
One thing I think Sony should do is be trying to develope more PSN games, the costs of a PSN game is approximately less then $1 million and they see pretty much 100% from every sale. IT's low cost revenue increasing developement... something Sony need.
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