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I don't think Bluray will be a failure. Once players reach the mass market price of around 150$-200$ im sure sales will take off. I also think bluray movies themselves need to drop in price to the same as dvd and HDTVs need to drop in price as well, which they will do. Just because a format doesn't take off right away doesnt mean its a failure. Look at CDs. It took quite a few years for them to take off but eventually when the price reach that mass market friendly level sales took off. If Bluray still isnt a success 3 years from now, id be worried, but until then dont right it off as a failure while its still at a premium.