HD Penetration.

[OriGin]

OriGin said: And the points about HDTV and SDTV penetration? What the? 18% penetration is what I understand the US to be at, at the moment, 50% of TV's purchased are HDTV's last year... great excellent, 100% of the population bought TV's last year? YEAH RIGHT. If 50% of TV's purchased were HDTV's and there is 18% penetration of HDTV's then that means 36% of the population bought new TV's last year?? again YEAH RIGHT. Realistically 20% or LESS of the population bought new TV's last year and therefore 50% of these purchases may have been HDTV's which then gives 10% of the population buying HDTV's last year. Take out the rich people who upgrade to a new and better TV every one or two years, or buying a second or third one for a household and you maybe have 5% of the population buying new HDTV's which means the maximum that the HDTV penetration can reach by the end of 2007 if it continues at the same rate is 23% - albeit it will probably increase in rate, and therefore maybe 30% of homes will have HDTV's. This leaves 66 million people with HDTV's. 43 million people bought PS3's in America, that's less than 30% of the total population that had TV's purchased a PS2. Therefore its safe to assume that this number is the maximum percentile of a group that will purchase a console, this drops because of the price and other things but that's another argument. If we take 30% of 66 million that leaves 19.8 million. This figure is a rough guide as to the MAXIMUM user or sales number the PS3 can achieve (without taking into consideration a LOT of things). 19.8 million people aren't going to buy a PS3 for MGS4 or FFXIII or Motorstorm or ANY of those games, so they need a broad range of games to cater for this 19.8 million people. Take everything I just said with a grain of salt as all of my points are rhetorical with no real figures to back them up, but using the numbers both sides of the argument have sprouted it's better to look at the TOTAL equation. I haven't taken into account things like the people who will buy 360 or PS3 and use it on an SDTV, there will be many I am sure, but then the appeal of the console goes away somewhat because the HD benefit is much larger.

+ or - new information gathered I think that suits here well.