It's going to be a close call. I really think it will depend on what Sony themselves does.
Sales during 2008 were about 10.4 million. If they were to do a price cut in the first half of 2009 (which I don't expect), they would see a markedly better year, leading to about 12-13 million more systems in 2009, and passing 40 million in mid-late 2010. If they delay the price cut to 4Q, they'll merely 'salvage' 2009, and see sales comparable to that of 2008- about 10 million, and not pass 40 million until late 2010 at the earliest. No price cuts in 2009 means that breaking 40M in 2010 is out of the question, and further, no price cuts through the first half of 2010 (from now) would be suicidal, and cost Sony enough ground to not be able to break the 40M lifetime.
-dunno001
-On a quest for the truly perfect game; I don't think it exists...
