| jpain333 said: Anything can happen....thats all I can say right now... |
No, not anything can happen. They PS3 can't be $199 next year. The Wii can't fall behind the Xbox 360 or the PS3. There are things we know cannot and will not happen.
I'd put the PS3 passing the Xbox 360 this generation into the list of things that "probably can't happen" as opposed to the "definintely cannot happen" things listed above.
People who predict way out there like to hide behind time. They like to say, "by 2011, X will happen" because we know it won't happen next year, or probably even the year after. And when their prediction falls flat in 3 years, no one will remember it because everyone will already know if it will come true after a year or two and they will have forgotten about it.
Right now, I'd say there is a > 50% chance that the Xbox 360 will expand upon its current gap between itself and the PS3 this generation. And there is a < 50% chance that the PS3 will be closer to the 360 than 8 million units. The idea that it will catch the 360 is almost insane.
Even if the PS3 caught the 360 in its last year, it would still be the loser of the generation. Whereas Microsoft made huge gains in terms of marketshare, developer share, and finally bringing in some profits, the PS3 did the opposite: it lost market share, it lost developer share, and it lost all of the PS2's profits. So even if the PS3 eventually passes the 360, all people will remember about this generation is that it was the one where Sony lost its grip on the home console market.
