Lazard analyst Colin Sebastian believes that a new Zelda will launch next year and will be one of the top sellers of '09, although he believes the year in general will see overall sales growth slow.
With 2008 quickly coming to a close, Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian issued a "Holiday Sales Wrap-up" note, stating that video game sales overall have "remained stable" midway through December. That said, the tide has not been lifting all boats, so to speak. "...consumer demand continues to be uneven, concentrated among Nintendo products (Wii and DS), Xbox 360 hardware bundles, and a limited number of core software titles (e.g., Call of Duty and Gears of War 2) amid a congested slate of high-quality releases," Sebastian said.
While Sebastian is expecting 2008 to finish with software sales up 20 percent, he believes the market will witness software sales growth "slowing to more modest mid-single-digit growth in 2009 on a tough comparison and potentially fewer hit titles." Furthermore, he thinks that "broader price reductions are likely on second-tier and catalog video games, while most frontline titles should remain at $59 (PS3 and 360) and $49 (Wii)."
Sebastian has provided a list of what he believes could be the top selling video games in 2009, and it's worth noting that he includes a new Zelda title in that group. Hardcore gamers are naturally quite eager to play an all-new Zelda, but Nintendo so far has not announced any new game in the franchise, nor has the company given any indication as to when that information/announcement is coming (although next year's new E3 would seem to be an obvious choice). Zelda director Eiji Aonuma said recently that he feels compelled to surpass Ocarina of Time, which to many fans remains the greatest game in the franchise.
Here's Sebastian's list of potential top sellers for 2009:
http://www.gamedaily.com/articles/news/video-game-sales-to-slow-in-09-new-wii-zelda-coming/?biz=1
