I love it how the Xbox 360 DOESN'T EXIST IN THESE DEBATES. Its like wow, a Wii vs PS3 wankfest. Why with any number of comical reasons would the game be on the PS3 exclusively when the Wii and Xbox 360 have far higher market penetration? This is a blockbuster, it doesn't matter how much it costs to make its all about how much it can sell. The advertising budget will be massive and that still doesn't preclude the Wii from being its primary system because likely 50+% of your previous generation KH owners will be using those systems because either they are hardcore and own 2 or more or because they were the casual PS2 owners.
For that reason PS3 exclusivity is completely out of the picture.
Here are some options.
1. Wii exclusivity: 50% chance.
The Wii is probably the best system for this game, the current demographics and massive market share attest to this. Its the only individual system where the game has the highest potential for sales, and they could challege Nintendos dominance at the top if the game is good enough and sell in multiples of 3M as per how good it is. Good = 3M sales, Great = 6M sales, Outstanding = 9M sales, Generation defining = 12M+ sales. The unknowns are SE and Disneys goals for this game and Microsofts actions.
2. Wii/Xbox 360/PS3: 20% chance.
Theres the Wii again, it will likely be on the Wii one way or another and probably the primary system at that. Releasing it on more than one system is just your typical making more money by targetting the widest possible market share.
2. Xbox 360 exclusivity: 20% chance.
As the Xbox 360 approaches the $100-$150 price bracket they need a game which is both family friendly and able to be permamently bundled with the system. They don't have LBP and they don't have Nintendos core franchises which are both likely candidates to improve the diversity of the demographic. This game is worth 3* more than any Gears of War or Metal Gear Solid exclusivity because they already cater to those markets extremely well. This game is worth millions to them and a money hat in the $50-150 Million range will do wonders for the future viability of the Xbox 360 platform especially once the Nextbox is released and they will want to maintain the sales of the 360 far beyond the generation cut out point.
$150 Arcade with Kingdom Hearts release 2010/2011? Yes please. When a series is valuable like this one, never discount the possibility that Microsoft will open their chequebook wide.
4. Xbox 360/PS3 HD exclusive: 10% chance.
Really, who are we kidding? The demographics for the consoles are strongly in the 20s and 30s range for both consoles. HD console owners are getting old now. Disney are a company which targets a much younger demographic and the series has always been about the Disney characters and NOT the SE characters. The possibility is only open because the Xbox 360 covers the wider demographic of the two, The PS3 on its own is completely out of the picture.
Tease.
