Dragon Qust 10: The Snowball Effect

[Aiemond]

Words Of Wisdom said:

Aiemond said:
You all saying how great western gaming has become has forgotten one important thing: the model cannot be sustained. You know, you can throw the best party in the world, but if you don't have any money after it, then you sure as hell won't be throwing another one. This is the situation the western development teams have fallen into. They have huge big budget games with unparalleled graphics. This is the big party. Now, to make the money back, our party thrower makes a fee to enter. His first party is great; everyone loves it. He makes money off it. He then goes and throws another party, and another, but this time he may spend as much, but not as many people are coming. Other people are throwing big parties, and those guests are splitting themselves between them. Our friendly party thrower has no more money to throw parties.

So, my question: why are so many western studios doing big cuts? The secret is one big failure is enough to cause an immense amount of damage finanically. And, one big game cannot save it. Look at Rockstar/Taketwo. They sold 10m copies of GTA IV. How much did they make this year total? Not even 200 million. And every other quarter they lose millions. This is common in the western industry. It has become a model of high risk/low reward. Any one with sense avoids these types of investments like the plague. The problem is, the companies are not run by business minds. Who runs take two? Developers.

The reality is western studios will continue to make these games because they cannot adapt and do anything else. They have no real model that can help them turn around their companies. And these developers will continue to lose their jobs and these companies will continue to thunder to the ground, to the amazement of HD fanboys. The question is: can these developers pick themselves up from the ashes? Because Japan is not going to hire them. And banks are not gonna fund new studios for them unless they have a REAL plan, one that projects profits.

So, yes, alot of western games are of very high quality now. But, at what price? Let them win their awards, let them oh and ah over the high budgets and pretty graphics on the game review sites. The prodigal son is squandering his fortune. But this time, he will not be welcomed back.

You know... it's pathetic how many people think of "Western developers" and "Eastern developers" as entities unto themselves. They're really not. When you have companies as different from one another as Bioware, Valve, Blizzard, and the Bethesda that each handle their games very differently, you'd think people would realize that they don't all act the same.

Some companies adapt quickly (EA), some adapt slowly (Take-Two), and some just weather the storm casually glancing down at the peasants around their feet (Valve/Blizzard). Meanwhile companies like Konami have been taking hits financially and SE has had to reverse its flagship title from exclusive to multiplatform to survive the times.

It's not a factor of where the company is located or what race of people run it, it's just a matter of some having foresight and covering their butts... and some not.

 

Khuutra said:

Words Of Wisdom said:

We were saying that in 2007.

Games aren't made overnight, what we'll see this year will be the fruits of the past couple years however whatever we see won't be the result of DQX's announcement. It will be the result of plans set in motion back in 2007 or 2008.

I - look, I know. Dragon Quest X isn't going to immediately affect things. I'm saying that Dragon Quest stands as proof that the storm has started in the Wii's favor. It is not a catalyst, it is a result.

I am pretty sure we are in agreement.

Mhm.

 

The similarities are in the business plans and how they are adapting. The fact is, the western developers are clumped together because generally they are acting the same. They make a bunch of big budget HD games, lose money, make some shitty wii games and complain they don't sell (or make total shovelware that forum goers complain about), and are totally and utterly unable to read the userbase of the wii. They then win an award and get praised by game "journalists" (who are more biased and have less investigative skills than fox news) and think all is ok. Thier models are the same, even if the games they make are different. Its a high risk/low reward strategy. These cannot work.

 

Now, for eastern developers, many of them are seeing the light significantly quicker. SE has DQ X and FFCC, Capcom is reevaluating alot of their wii titles to add additional resources, Sega is changing to mostly wii development, Konami is prolly going to put suikoden on the wii and a new CV game. Also, it has DS games to help make profits (something most of the western ones do not).

 

The eastern businesses are run by japenese business men, so they can make quicker changes and can read market trends better. Now, I'm not saying everyone needs to be a business man. Kojima is not one, and does not need to be. But, the people that are green lighting his projects need to be. Western companies are run by gamers that became developers. They have no business sense, they think internet wisdom dictates the direction they go, and they let thier pride delude them into having to make an HD game not matter the cost. Look, Jaffe, a respected and talented developer was able to cuss and throw "fuck" around in his blog talking about how awesome GoW3 looked. What other industry allows this public outburst? Hollywood and sports. Here is a problem: The game industry is neither. The western developers need to get out of the "too many scientists, not enough hunchbacks" scenario and get some real business models made.

 

And, for Blizzard and Valve, valve has a sucsessful platform in steam that provides a large amount of revenue (and profit I bet) and sells PC games. Blizzard always makes a good game and does not glut with thier titles. They also, more importantly, have the most successful MMO since everquest. This alone keeps them up.