Dragon Qust 10: The Snowball Effect

[Aiemond]

You all saying how great western gaming has become has forgotten one important thing: the model cannot be sustained. You know, you can throw the best party in the world, but if you don't have any money after it, then you sure as hell won't be throwing another one. This is the situation the western development teams have fallen into. They have huge big budget games with unparalleled graphics. This is the big party. Now, to make the money back, our party thrower makes a fee to enter. His first party is great; everyone loves it. He makes money off it. He then goes and throws another party, and another, but this time he may spend as much, but not as many people are coming. Other people are throwing big parties, and those guests are splitting themselves between them. Our friendly party thrower has no more money to throw parties.

So, my question: why are so many western studios doing big cuts? The secret is one big failure is enough to cause an immense amount of damage finanically. And, one big game cannot save it. Look at Rockstar/Taketwo. They sold 10m copies of GTA IV. How much did they make this year total? Not even 200 million. And every other quarter they lose millions. This is common in the western industry. It has become a model of high risk/low reward. Any one with sense avoids these types of investments like the plague. The problem is, the companies are not run by business minds. Who runs take two? Developers.

The reality is western studios will continue to make these games because they cannot adapt and do anything else. They have no real model that can help them turn around their companies. And these developers will continue to lose their jobs and these companies will continue to thunder to the ground, to the amazement of HD fanboys. The question is: can these developers pick themselves up from the ashes? Because Japan is not going to hire them. And banks are not gonna fund new studios for them unless they have a REAL plan, one that projects profits.

So, yes, alot of western games are of very high quality now. But, at what price? Let them win their awards, let them oh and ah over the high budgets and pretty graphics on the game review sites. The prodigal son is squandering his fortune. But this time, he will not be welcomed back.