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A slimline PS3 is coming, is it just a matter of when.

Sony does this to help reduce costs, not after a console becomes "successful". Sony is under more pressure now to drop the cost of the PS3 than in previous generations. They have already had a couple hardware revisions so far this generation, they just have not changed the form factor of the console yet. Cell and RSX have already had a die-shrink, so a smaller console should already be possible.

Making a slimline version of the PS3 will help Sony save money on the PS3. Reduced component costs, smaller chips with less cooling, cheaper enclosure, smaller power supply, lighter shipping weight. A slim model should come with a nice reduction is manufacturing/shipping costs for each console.