I do not think it is that simple.
The problem is the market is fractured between PS360 and Wii and neither market is easy for third parties to make money in. The HD market has high risk due to development expenses as you mentioned. On the other hand the Wii market is just as risky because it is so new and different that the devs need to spend a lot of money trying out new ideas to see what works, both in terms of the new controls and the new gamers.
For example if the Wii had not been such a success or had used a traditional controller then developers could have used a single content/code base to target the entire market so risk would have been reduced. Or if the HD consoles had included motion controls comparable to the Wii from the start devs could try new ideas that evolved from traditional ones that had a better chance of resonating with some demographic in the larger combined market.
I am glad not to be in the game industry right now, because I just do not see a clear way forward for a lot of the developers.
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