I don't think that either format is really going to take off for years. My observation has been that most people aren't that interested in HD for HD's sake and HD-DVD and Blu-ray don't have any substantive new features aside from HD.
DVD adoption was quick because it offered new features like scene selection, commentary, and simply not needing to be rewound and because there was a flood of old movies and TV shows released for it.
For HD-DVD and Blu-ray, the problem is that the flood of old movies and TV shows bit isn't going to work twice in a row because most of the old content won't benefit from HD and people are reluctant to buy something again when they already bought it 5 years ago. HD-DVD and Blu-ray can only be sold by new content, and there really isn't enough compelling new HD content to win over consumers.
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