The Nintendo Uus
A year ago I was thinking the Uus would be out 2010. I fully expected Wii demand to let up, prices to drop, and an announcement made in late 2009. Since then, Wii dominance has not only continued, it has increased. It is unlikely to see its first price drop until late 2009 at the earliest, and with the WiiMotion Plus the waggle gimmick will likely get a second wind. We may get a WiiHD at some point, or some value added Wii, but the soonest we can expect the Uus is 2011.
The XBox 720
Microsoft is in a weird position. It is suceeding more through Sony's blunder's than their own brilliance. They're doing well enough, but still being lapped by the Wii. The PS3's failure has given Microsoft a grace period - there's no way that Sony moves the PS4 to market before they've fixed the PS3 bleeding. No doubt MS wants to be first to market again, but not at the expense of past mistakes - faulty hardware, and being unprepared for the waggle revolution. They are going to respond to the Wii's success and attempt to make a gaming console that draws both casual and core gamers. They will no doubt copy the Wiimote (or Wiimote plus), but won't want to settle for being a copycat. They will want to best Nintendo at their own game and come up with a catchy innovation of their own. They also have to know Sony will not make the same mistakes as last time, and Sony is still too close in weekly sales for MS to assume they have a real advantage next gen. They don't want to release too soon and have Sony "Dreamcast" them. My guess is their original plan was to release in 2011, but may hold off until 2012, which will almost certainly allow them to see most of Nintendo's cards and still likely get a jump on the PS4.
The Playstaion Four
Based on Sony's past statements, I assume the PS3 plan was similar to the PSX and PS2 plan - release the console, wait 6 years, release new console and let old console coast for another 3-4 years. That means Sony's plan would have been to release the PS4 in 2012. I'm not sure they can do that. Dropping out early, with a 2011 release, would be a huge risk. They'd be firesaling PS3's, and run a real risk of releasing the next Dreamcast. They need to reestablish their bona fides, and that won't be done by bailing out early. At best, the PS3 will reach mass market price ($199) in 2010, maybe even 2011. They don't want to launch a new console at that point. Even 2012 could be stepping on the PS3's toes, and Sony really wants to make up the revenue it lost in the early half of the PS3's life. That means letting the PS3 coast for a year or two. However, that's thinking in a vaccuum. While Sony waits, Nintendo and Microsoft will almost surely be getting their consoles out, and that means Sony needs to make the PS4 truly fantastic (from the POV of a typical consumer, not a rabid tech head) or risk getting crowded out of the market fast.
