As I posted in another thread last night:
1. As of the end of 2006, Gears of War had sold a bit over 3 million units on an install base of ~8 million Xbox 360s. That's around a 38% attach ratio. Other games have managed similarly high attach ratios in the past.
2. By the end of 2009, the ps3 should have around a 30 million install base. For GT5 to sell 10 million, it would only need a 33% attach ratio...assuming it has to sell all 10 million in 2009, which it obviously doesn't.
3. MGS4 is well on it's way to outselling MGS3. Similarly DMC4 (the ps3 version alone) is on it's way to outselling DMC3. Why could GT5 not outsell GT4 as well?
4. GT4 actually sold over 10 million like GT1-3. Our numbers say 9.5 million, but it's likely the game is under tracked. GT4 had shipped 10.18 million as of June 2008, according to Polyphony Digital's website, and it's unlikely that 600k units are still sitting on shelves at this stage. Even for new releases it's unlikely for that many to be sitting on shelves.
In conclusion, it is highly probable that GT5 will sell over 10 million by the end of the generation.
