The average in the UK is around 4-5mb, so when there are alot of these 16-20mb lines being used, it also means that there are a huge amount of people using sub 4-5mb lines.
And the companies that want to sell media will want to be sure that the people at the lower end of the spectrum can watch the movies in good time, which, for the general public would have to be within a minute or two of selecting the film.
So for HD quality, the lowest end of the broadband market will need to be significantly faster in order to make this possible.
Without mentioning the ever so tiny issue that people want to watch movies on their TV's, 99.9% of computers are not connected to a TV for both logistical reasons and the lack of technical know how.
My parents have a media centre in their livingroom, but only because i suggested, built and set it up for them, they wouldnt know where to start otherwise and certainly wouldnt have thought about connecting a computer to the tv in the first place.
stand alone players work because your average consumer is comfortable with buying one in the knowledge that:
1) they can connect it to their tv
2) they can control it through their tv
3) and when they are finished watching a film they put it back in the box and turn the player off, no crashes, no reboots, no upgrades, no maintainance.
If you want to see the likely direction of the companies selling the media, you need look no further than what the average consumer can handle, downloads may take over one day, but your talking around 10 years from now more than likely, more than enough time for blueray to be profitable.
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