Man, Halo 3 preorders are off the hook...

[kn]

thetonestarr said:

kn said:

thetonestarr said:

kn said:

I think that record stands at about $150 million for Spiderman 3 in the U.S.

Let's just hope that it doesn't follow the "delivery" of Spideman 3, too.

As in, turn out to be a total letdown for the majority of viewers/players.

 

Also: Before anybody says, "OMG HALO3 PWNS SO BAD THESE PREORDER NUMBERS PROVE IT", I doubt Halo 3 will have legs for very long at all. I expect that it has such high preorder numbers because most, if not all, of the people who WILL want the game - ever - already know that they will. As a result, they're all buying it right away.

It's the same concept as the fact that anybody who wants Halo 3 probably already has a 360, so Halo 3 won't move many consoles.

Uh... wishful fanboy thinking in all respects. Halo 3 will move consoles. Bank on it. The "everyone who will buy it has a 360 already" is bogus and you know it. As far as legs are concerned it will certainly drop off quickly because it can't maintain the kind of sales that it will have the first week. Just not possible regardless of how great the game is. If you think, however, that it won't continue to sell a respectable volume for a fairly long period, think again... There are so many great games coming out through the first of the year there will be a lot of folks who put it off for a bit. Holiday 360 hardware sales will push a lot of copies out the door as well.

So, is that why I plan on buying a 360, and maybe Halo 3 someday? Get off yourself and don't make assumptions.

 

I never said that last sentence was a concept I supported or believed, first. I simply said that the two concepts have a lot in common. I DO believe, though, that most Halo 3 players DO already have 360s, especially since they got a chance to play the demo a few months ago.

Halo 3 is a game where most people who are going to want it will already have a 360. In the six years since H:CE's release, most gamers have already decided whether they have any desire to play Halo or not. As a result, Halo 3 doesn't have that much further to go. It's not doing that much new, so it won't be like, "OMG HALO 2 WAS LAME BUT HALO 3 IS AWZUM NOW I WANNA PLAY."

It certainly will sell to some previous non-players, and it certainly will move some consoles. I never said it wouldn't. What I said is that it won't move many, or have long legs. Let me expand on that.

A very, very large portion of the game's total sales will be from the release period. Because, as I said, most gamers have made up their minds by now. They either love Halo, or they don't, pretty much. All the people who "love" Halo are going to be wanting Halo 3 right from the start. The people who don't, well, they'll be spending their money on something else.

There ARE a fair number of exceptions, yes, but these people won't count for much. They're mostly people who don't have the money for a 360, are waiting it out for M$ to fix their hardware issues, or people who just recently got into the gaming scene and aren't exactly sure what they want yet (however, most of those will likely decide on a Wii).

I happen to fall into the first two categories. My wife and I can't exactly afford to throw down $350 for the system I prefer (However, if I get the job I just interviewed for (which pays substantially better than my current job), I'll be getting a second part-time at either Gamestop or Best Buy and buying an Elite instead, since I'll get a discount). Additionally, even if I had the money, I'm not sure I'd buy one yet anyhow. I'd rather wait until they have a much lower hardware fail rate. I'd hate to end up being the guy that goes through 12 systems. Too much a bother. My PC's just as capible of most of the gaming I'd do on a 360, so I'm happy here for now.

Either way, I doubt the people who fall into those categories will count for many. I expect that Holiday '07 will be the end of significant Halo 3 sales, and its life will mostly blubber on after that. It'll sell, but nothing significant or respectable (per week) after that.

I DO think it'll probably continue selling (feebly) for a long time after that though (the whole mess of non-owners finally getting money or making that decision), so it MAY still end up totaling to a respectable TOTAL after this holiday season.

 Ok, I guess I owe you an apology?  Apparently I didn't understand your post though after re-re-re-reading I'm at a loss to interpret otherwise.  I disagree that it won't have some legs, though along with that it won't move a decent number of consoles.  I think people will be surpised at many consoles it DOES move over the last quarter of this year though the direct measure of it will be difficult.  As always, time will separate fact from opinion, but, as I said before, I think you are both underestimating the number of boxes that go out the door and the legs Halo3 will have.  Look at Gears... It's STILL selling...