Will the PS3 fall below 15% marketshare in Americas in 2009?

[Oyvoyvoyv]

I doubt it.

Generally, consoles see different kinds of sales in certain times of the year. The Ps3 has (both this year, and last year) proven that it isn't one of the consoles that take off like hell during christmas.

In Q4 (so far) it has had 13.95% market share.

But that doesn't really mean a lot. Sure, it means something, but you can't draw a trend with it.

In Q3, it had 21% market share.

Despite the changes that have happened lately, Q3 is still closer to what Q1 will be than Q4 is. Of course, as the Ps3 has started "failing" lately, it won't maintain 21% market share, but I'd say that sticking to ~ 17% (at least for Q1-Q3) seems more reasonable.

 

But as it has proven that Q4 is now equally large as Q1 + Q2 + Q3 combined (in Americas), the Ps3 could still dip to around 15-16%.

 

If I were to predict a trend, I would say that the Ps3 will sell about equal to its market share in Q1-Q3, and then drop slightly during the holidays. Repeat for next year.

 

So eventually, perhaps (heck, after X360 + Ps3 dies off, but Wii continues (something that is bound to happen) it will be likely that it drops to sub 15%). But I don't see it happening in 2009, and 2010 is also unlikely.