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I don't know how anyone can claim one game is going to score better than the other, given that both developer's previous games always scored in the low to mid 80s on metacritic, and we haven't seen enough (read: anything) of Alan Wake to make any sort of judgment of how good it's going to be.

Personally, Heavy Rain appeals to me more. Alan Wake is an open-world action/horror game, and I'm just not a fan of horror games. Heavy Rain's narrative based gameplay, however, excites me.