Why the Wii Won't sell 80m+

[robjoh]

mrstickball said: I understand that Nintendo and other sources claim the NDS is at 2.5m units a month for shipping, but I believe that information is VERY false. Consider this: The NDS sold 500,000 units (estimated) in the US, and around 550,000 in NA/America. The NDS sold around a similar number (125k/week) in Japan Also, the NDS is selling most likely around 400k a month in Europe/other. That puts actual sellthrough @ 1.4m units a month. The NDS is near (or actually) sold-out everywhere or almost everywhere in Japan, and I feel that most likely the NDS is near that level elsewhere. By those sales numbers which are actual (atleast for NA and Japan), Nintendo is shipping 600k to 1m units that aren't selling. IMO, at this stage, thats impossibe. The DS is doing beastly-like numbers, therefore I feel the 2.5m unit is far over-exaggerating their claims. Please prove me wrong, but the numbers just don't add up. This is why I believe Nintendo can't actually increase their Wii capacity as quickly as some believe possible. Again, at Nintendo doing 1.0m units right now, that'd put them at 62m units LTD at the 5 year mark, assuming every shipped unit sold. Obviously I calculated them doing 1.6m units a month (a beastly number regardless) by 2009, and staying there till November 2011, giving them the 82m unit number.

Now you can be 100% correct here, but I belive the 2.5 million units manufactured is from Nintendos financial report, if they lie there wouldn't that give financial effects? I mean is that legal? You also have to remember that comanies usual stock part of the manufacored systems for holidays. Now this was not what we should discuss here, it was Wii. As I said before assambly the mothercard for the Wii should be quit simple and could be done in any electronic factory. The big problem is plastic parts which need new tools for the process, if Nintendo is using the existant tools up to 100% they need to make some new tools. That can take up till a year, first you should mill out the tool then test production and so on. I think it could be possible to increase the production uptill 1.5 million if the want somewhere early 2008, I don't know if that is enough. Now they also need IBM to deliver 50% more CPU:s so IBM might need to build up more factories and so on. The list can go on for ever what Nintendo need to solve.