Will the Wii have 50% market share by the end of 2009?

[zleep]

Pricecut won't matter as much as you imply. Also, the Wii will have a full year where it will have 2.4 million/month and they could ramp up production if they feel like it.

Remember Wii hasn't seen a pricecut either. Wii will have at least 55% marketshare by the end of 09, I dont believe HD console sales will jump dramatically as you expect, there's nothing that points to it. Even worse with the economic crisis.