The Xbox 360 might have the lowest redundant ownership rate in the history of console gaming... Think about it for a moment. Yes, many 360s break. But it's the only console in history to offer an automatic three year warranty.
Mine broke about 14 months after purchase. Under a normal warranty, I would have purchased a new one. Instead, I got another back from MS for nothing.
Now consider the failure rate of PS1s, PS2s, etc... How many redundant purchases were made of those consoles? Add in the Slim series, etc. and that number keeps getting higher.
Overall, there isn't enough data to make any kind of educated guess about this. My theory is just as likely true as yours.

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