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Trees die if they are too close to water, other trees, the sign post (since new villagers move in on that area where sign post is, and a few other things. The best way to have a tree grow is to cut a regular one down and plant an exotic in it's place. If a tree grew there before then it will always grow in that space. Watering trees has no effect and will not increase the survival rate. I just chopped down like 20-40 regular trees and replanted exotics and all of them grew.